Paula leaving ‘Idol?' Say it isn't so!

I managed to survive Lt. Colonel Henry Blake's departure from “M*A*S*H.” And when big brother Adam Cartwright left Bonanza I was just fine. I wasn't thrilled when Chrissy Snow moved out on “Three's Company,” and I have to admit that when Adriana was dragged through the woods and “executed” by Silvio on “The Sopranos” I was a bit shaken.
BUT Paula Abdul leaving “American Idol,” the number one show on television for most of this century? Well that is going to be hard to take.
Look, I fully realize that Paula was (and is) a “whack job.” Don't feed me the line that as the “nurturing mother” of ‘Idol,' the show's heart has been removed. I just read a quote from Season 6 winner Jordin Sparks that “The contestants are going to be so traumatized…There's not going to be anyone to soften the blow.”
Season 6 runner-up Blake Lewis added “Paula leaving ‘American Idol' is like a honeycomb without the honey. She brought a sweetness to the AI that no one can replace.”
Those quotes make me want to gag. Oh, the poor contestants won't have Paula to tell them how wonderful and talented they all are. Poor babies.
But the fact is that my main reason for watching “Idol” was the comedy that ensued in the give and take between her and Simon. Her wide-eyed naiveté played off perfectly against Mr. Cowell's snarkiness. She was the Gracie Allen to his George Burns, the Stan Laurel to his Oliver Hardy.
For me the highlight of the show's first eight seasons was the look on Simon's face when Paula thought a contestant had already sang twice. Or the bedazzled looks on everyone's face trying to figure just what the heck she was trying to say so many times. It was often apparent that when she started speaking a sentence, Paula had no idea how it was going to end. How about last year when Simon drew on her with crayons?
My biggest worry about “Idol” has always been that it would take itself too seriously, but the childish interplay between Paula and Simon always just prevented the show from crossing that line.
The fact is that her “replacement,” Kara DioGuardi, is too normal, too vanilla. She really takes the show too seriously, and her efforts at coming up with “meaningful” comments are just boring.
Will the show still be somewhat entertaining? Sure, but it won't be nearly as easy to make fun of without Ms. Abdul. Want the perfect analogy? Kara is Shemp to Paula's Curly, and while the “Three Stooges” were pretty good with Shemp, it was Curly, and his interactions with Moe, that really and truly made the Stooges absolutely hysterical.
Hopefully this is just a money issue, and Paula's claim to quit the show was just a negotiating ploy. Perhaps someone somewhere can start another “Idol Gives Back” telethon to raise the money to lure Paula back.
I'll certainly kick in 10 bucks! How about you?

Why Kris Allen Will Win 'American Idol'

Every season on "American Idol" Simon repeats the phrase "This is a singing competition" countless times.

I hate to disagree with the Chief Justice, but I must. When it comes to the final vote, "American Idol" is no longer a singing competition. Now it is a popularity contest. And that is why I think Kris Allen will win.

Sure, early on when the judges are narrowing the field, their decisions may be based upon how well someone sings. But as America votes, how well someone actually sings becomes less and less important each week.

As the field narrows down to the final three or four performers, they all can sing (at least this year), and most will have recording careers with a relatively high degree of success. (Oh my, am I beginning to sound like Paula?)

By the time we reach the finals, the voting comes down to calculating who has the largest group of fans, and it becomes strictly a numbers game.

Frankly there is little doubt in most people's mind that this season of "American Idol" belongs to Adam Lambert. As I have written before, he is certainly the best "entertainer," and no matter who wins next week, he will have the biggest career. When people look back on the 2009 "Idol" competition, it is Adam Lambert who will be most remembered.

But I don't think he will win. IF Ryan Seacrest was telling the truth (and I am always a little suspicious of his statistical claims) that fewer than 1 one million votes separated Adam and Kris' totals last week, then the most important factor is determining who will capture the most Danny Gokey votes.

It seems very apparent that a vast majority of the conservative, down to Earth, nice guy, Midwestern Gokey vote will swing over to Kris Allen, a down-home country boy from Conway, Ark. Of course Kris will easily retain his base, the young girls who swoon at his cute, boy-next-door looks.

(I know I am beginning to sound like Wolf Blitzer on CNN analyzing a presidential primary battle between Barack and Hillary.)

Adam is someone who generates strong feelings from people pro and con. Again, as I have written before, there certainly is a segment of the voting population that generates an anti-Adam vote. (I doubt if there are any "anti-Kris" voters.)

So now 100 percent of the anti-Adam votes will swing to Kris, and I predict he will win the competition fairly easily.

Having said that, I personally prefer Adam Lambert, and when all is said and done, even though Kris Allen will win the "Idol" crown, I predict that it is Adam Lambert who will become the biggest star to graduate from "American Idol," not just for this season but also from seasons past.

'American Idol' Prediction

The assignment from Gina Carbone was simple: "Whom do you pick to win 'American Idol' this season?"

Gina knows an easy mark when she meets one. After all, last season she wrote a piece stating "Why David Cook would win," opposite an article I wrote guaranteeing that David Archuleta would win. Earlier this season I wrote an article predicting that Anoop Desai would win.

So carrying a miserable 0 for 2 track record, here are my predictions as we head into "Idol's" Final Four.Even though he was in the bottom three last week, I predict with absolute certainty that Adam Lambert will make the finals. Without question he is by far the most talented performer remaining, and I firmly believe that he will become the biggest star to emerge from this season.In fact I further predict that Adam Lambert will eventually sell more records (or downloads or ringtones, or whatever it is that singers sell these days) and become more popular than any "American Idol" alum, and that includes Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, Daughtry, and Jennifer Hudson.

He has a unique quality that is very, very rare. I doubt if Adam will ever become as big as "The King," (nobody will), but from the very beginning he reminded me of a young Elvis. Maybe it's the jet black hair or perhaps the pure, raw energy that he exudes.

(Actually I can easily envision Adam in two or three decades resembling an older, bloated Elvis, performing in glitzy Vegas hotel showrooms in front of screaming middle aged women who would be today's teenagers.)Having said all that, I am fairly confident that Adam Lambert will NOT win the "Idol" crown this year. He is an entertainer that most people either love or hate, and when it comes down to a one-on-one competition in the finals, he will lose.

Either Allison Iraheta will win, capturing the female and anti-Adam votes; or Kris Allen will win, capturing the heartthrob and anti-Adam votes; or Danny Gokey will win, capturing the down to Earth regular guy, sympathy, and anti-Adam votes. (OK, Gina, if I have to pick someone, I'll go with Gokey.)

The irony is that whomever of the three actually wins, I am confident that person will eventually fall into the Ruben Studdard, Taylor Hicks, Jordin Sparks, and David Cook category of mediocre, soon to be forgotten "American Idol" winners.

And this season's runner up, Adam Lambert, will become the biggest star of all!