Why Kris Allen Will Win 'American Idol'

Every season on "American Idol" Simon repeats the phrase "This is a singing competition" countless times.

I hate to disagree with the Chief Justice, but I must. When it comes to the final vote, "American Idol" is no longer a singing competition. Now it is a popularity contest. And that is why I think Kris Allen will win.

Sure, early on when the judges are narrowing the field, their decisions may be based upon how well someone sings. But as America votes, how well someone actually sings becomes less and less important each week.

As the field narrows down to the final three or four performers, they all can sing (at least this year), and most will have recording careers with a relatively high degree of success. (Oh my, am I beginning to sound like Paula?)

By the time we reach the finals, the voting comes down to calculating who has the largest group of fans, and it becomes strictly a numbers game.

Frankly there is little doubt in most people's mind that this season of "American Idol" belongs to Adam Lambert. As I have written before, he is certainly the best "entertainer," and no matter who wins next week, he will have the biggest career. When people look back on the 2009 "Idol" competition, it is Adam Lambert who will be most remembered.

But I don't think he will win. IF Ryan Seacrest was telling the truth (and I am always a little suspicious of his statistical claims) that fewer than 1 one million votes separated Adam and Kris' totals last week, then the most important factor is determining who will capture the most Danny Gokey votes.

It seems very apparent that a vast majority of the conservative, down to Earth, nice guy, Midwestern Gokey vote will swing over to Kris Allen, a down-home country boy from Conway, Ark. Of course Kris will easily retain his base, the young girls who swoon at his cute, boy-next-door looks.

(I know I am beginning to sound like Wolf Blitzer on CNN analyzing a presidential primary battle between Barack and Hillary.)

Adam is someone who generates strong feelings from people pro and con. Again, as I have written before, there certainly is a segment of the voting population that generates an anti-Adam vote. (I doubt if there are any "anti-Kris" voters.)

So now 100 percent of the anti-Adam votes will swing to Kris, and I predict he will win the competition fairly easily.

Having said that, I personally prefer Adam Lambert, and when all is said and done, even though Kris Allen will win the "Idol" crown, I predict that it is Adam Lambert who will become the biggest star to graduate from "American Idol," not just for this season but also from seasons past.