'American Idol' Prediction

The assignment from Gina Carbone was simple: "Whom do you pick to win 'American Idol' this season?"

Gina knows an easy mark when she meets one. After all, last season she wrote a piece stating "Why David Cook would win," opposite an article I wrote guaranteeing that David Archuleta would win. Earlier this season I wrote an article predicting that Anoop Desai would win.

So carrying a miserable 0 for 2 track record, here are my predictions as we head into "Idol's" Final Four.Even though he was in the bottom three last week, I predict with absolute certainty that Adam Lambert will make the finals. Without question he is by far the most talented performer remaining, and I firmly believe that he will become the biggest star to emerge from this season.In fact I further predict that Adam Lambert will eventually sell more records (or downloads or ringtones, or whatever it is that singers sell these days) and become more popular than any "American Idol" alum, and that includes Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, Daughtry, and Jennifer Hudson.

He has a unique quality that is very, very rare. I doubt if Adam will ever become as big as "The King," (nobody will), but from the very beginning he reminded me of a young Elvis. Maybe it's the jet black hair or perhaps the pure, raw energy that he exudes.

(Actually I can easily envision Adam in two or three decades resembling an older, bloated Elvis, performing in glitzy Vegas hotel showrooms in front of screaming middle aged women who would be today's teenagers.)Having said all that, I am fairly confident that Adam Lambert will NOT win the "Idol" crown this year. He is an entertainer that most people either love or hate, and when it comes down to a one-on-one competition in the finals, he will lose.

Either Allison Iraheta will win, capturing the female and anti-Adam votes; or Kris Allen will win, capturing the heartthrob and anti-Adam votes; or Danny Gokey will win, capturing the down to Earth regular guy, sympathy, and anti-Adam votes. (OK, Gina, if I have to pick someone, I'll go with Gokey.)

The irony is that whomever of the three actually wins, I am confident that person will eventually fall into the Ruben Studdard, Taylor Hicks, Jordin Sparks, and David Cook category of mediocre, soon to be forgotten "American Idol" winners.

And this season's runner up, Adam Lambert, will become the biggest star of all!